Evaluating welfare and economic effects of raised fertility / Krzysztof Makarski (FAME|GRAPE, NBP and Warsaw School of Economics), Joanna Tyrowicz (FAME|GRAPE, IAAEU, IZA and University of Warsaw), Magda Malec (FAME|GRAPE and Warsaw School of Economics) ; IZA Institute of Labor Economics
VerfasserMakarski, Krzysztof ; Tyrowicz, Joanna ; Malec, Magda
KörperschaftForschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit
ErschienenBonn, Germany : IZA Institute of Labor Economics, April 2019
Elektronische Ressource
Umfang1 Online-Ressource (35 Seiten) : Diagramme
SerieDiscussion paper ; no. 12272
 Das Dokument ist öffentlich zugänglich im Rahmen des deutschen Urheberrechts.
Evaluating welfare and economic effects of raised fertility [1.15 mb]
Verfügbarkeit In meiner Bibliothek
Zusammenfassung (Englisch)

Many countries consider rising fertility through pro-family policies as a solution to the fiscal pressure stemming from longevity. However, an increased number of births implies immediate private costs and only delayed public benefits of younger and larger population. We propose using an overlapping generations model with a rich family structure to quantify the effects of simulated increases to the birth rates. We analyze the overall macroeconomic and welfare effects of these simulated paths relative to status quo. We also study the distribution of these effects across cohorts and study the sensitivity of the final effects to the assumed target value and path of increased fertility. Since our study tries to quantify the possible effects of pro-natalistic policies, we focus of public costs and benefits of having children. We find that fiscal effects are positive, but short of the natalistic expenditures in many countries. The sign and the size of both welfare and fiscal effects depend on the patterns of increased fertility.