Methods matter: p-hacking and causal inference in economics / Abel Brodeur (University of Ottawa and IZA), Nikolai Cook (University of Ottawa), Anthony Heyes (University of Ottawa and University of Sussex) ; IZA Institute of Labor Economics
VerfasserBrodeur, Abel ; Cook, Nikolai ; Heyes, Anthony
KörperschaftForschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit
ErschienenBonn, Germany : IZA Institute of Labor Economics, August 2018
Elektronische Ressource
Umfang1 Online-Ressource (26 Seiten) : Diagramme
SerieDiscussion paper ; no. 11796
 Das Dokument ist öffentlich zugänglich im Rahmen des deutschen Urheberrechts.
Methods matter: p-hacking and causal inference in economics [0.53 mb]
Verfügbarkeit In meiner Bibliothek
Zusammenfassung (Englisch)

The economics 'credibility revolution' has promoted the identification of causal relationships using difference-in-differences (DID), instrumental variables (IV), randomized control trials (RCT) and regression discontinuity design (RDD) methods. The extent to which a reader should trust claims about the statistical significance of results proves very sensitive to method. Applying multiple methods to 13,440 hypothesis tests reported in 25 top economics journals in 2015, we show that selective publication and p-hacking is a substantial problem in research employing DID and (in particular) IV. RCT and RDD are much less problematic. Almost 25% of claims of marginally significant results in IV papers are misleading.