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Titel
The race for an artificial general intelligence : implications for public policy / Wim Naudé (MSM, Maastricht University, UNU-MERIT, RWTH Aachen University and IZA), Nicola Dimitri (University of Siena) ; IZA Institute of Labor Economics
VerfasserNaudé, Wim In der Gemeinsamen Normdatei der DNB nachschlagen ; Dimitri, Nicola In der Gemeinsamen Normdatei der DNB nachschlagen
KörperschaftForschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit In der Gemeinsamen Normdatei der DNB nachschlagen
ErschienenBonn, Germany : IZA Institute of Labor Economics, August 2018
Ausgabe
Elektronische Ressource
Umfang1 Online-Ressource (23 Seiten) : Diagramme
SerieDiscussion paper ; no. 11737
URNurn:nbn:de:hbz:5:2-164148 Persistent Identifier (URN)
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The race for an artificial general intelligence [0.33 mb]
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Zusammenfassung

An arms race for an artificial general intelligence (AGI) would be detrimental for and even pose an existential threat to humanity if it results in an unfriendly AGI. In this paper an all-pay contest model is developed to derive implications for public policy to avoid such an outcome. It is established that in a winner-takes all race, where players must invest in R&D, only the most competitive teams will participate. Given the difficulty of AGI the number of competing teams is unlikely ever to be very large. It is also established that the intention of teams competing in an AGI race, as well as the possibility of an intermediate prize is important in determining the quality of the eventual AGI. The possibility of an intermediate prize will raise quality of research but also the probability of finding the dominant AGI application and hence will make public control more urgent. It is recommended that the danger of an unfriendly AGI can be reduced by taxing AI and by using public procurement. This would reduce the pay-off of contestants, raise the amount of R&D needed to compete, and coordinate and incentivize co-operation, all outcomes that will help alleviate the control and political problems in AI. Future research is needed to elaborate the design of systems of public procurement of AI innovation and for appropriately adjusting the legal frameworks underpinning high-tech innovation, in particular dealing with patents created by AI.