Titelaufnahme

Titel
Prediction based on entrepreneurship-prone personality profiles : sometimes worse than the toss of a coin / Alexander Konon (DIW Berlin), Alexander Kritikos (DIW Berlin, University of Potsdam and IZA) ; IZA Institute of Labor Economics
VerfasserKonon, Alexander ; Kritikos, Alexander
KörperschaftForschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit
ErschienenBonn, Germany : IZA Institute of Labor Economics, October 2018
Ausgabe
Elektronische Ressource
Umfang1 Online-Ressource (36 Seiten) : Diagramme
SerieDiscussion paper ; no. 11880
URNurn:nbn:de:hbz:5:2-168995 
Zugriffsbeschränkung
 Das Dokument ist öffentlich zugänglich im Rahmen des deutschen Urheberrechts.
Volltexte
Prediction based on entrepreneurship-prone personality profiles [1.26 mb]
Links
Nachweis
Verfügbarkeit In meiner Bibliothek
Zusammenfassung (Englisch)

The human personality predicts a wide range of activities and occupational choices - from musical sophistication to entrepreneurial careers. However, which method should be applied if information on personality traits is used for prediction and advice? In psychological research, group profiles are widely employed. In this contribution, we examine the performance of profiles using the example of career prediction and advice, involving a comparison of average trait scores of successful entrepreneurs with the traits of potential entrepreneurs. Based on a simple theoretical model estimated with GSOEP data and analyzed with Monte Carlo methods, we show, for the first time, that the choice of the comparison method matters substantially. We reveal that under certain conditions the performance of aver-age profiles is inferior to the tossing of a coin. Alternative methods, such as directly estimating success probabilities, deliver better performance and are more robust.