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Titel
On the exposure of the BRIC countries to global economic shocks / Ansgar Belke (University of Duisburg-Essen, CEPS and IZA), Christian Dreger (DIW Berlin and IZA), Irina Dubova (Ruhr Graduate School of Economics and University of Duisburg-Essen) ; IZA, Institute of Labor Economics
VerfasserBelke, Ansgar In der Gemeinsamen Normdatei der DNB nachschlagen ; Dreger, Christian In der Gemeinsamen Normdatei der DNB nachschlagen ; Dubova, Irina In der Gemeinsamen Normdatei der DNB nachschlagen
KörperschaftForschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit In der Gemeinsamen Normdatei der DNB nachschlagen
ErschienenBonn, Germany : IZA Institute of Labor Economics, March 2017
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Elektronische Ressource
Umfang1 Online-Ressource (31 Seiten) : Diagramme
SerieDiscussion paper ; no. 10634
URNurn:nbn:de:hbz:5:2-116418 Persistent Identifier (URN)
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On the exposure of the BRIC countries to global economic shocks [1.32 mb]
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Zusammenfassung

The financial crisis led to a deep recession in many industrial countries. While large emerging countries recovered relatively quickly from the financial crisis, their performance deteriorated in the recent years, despite the modest recovery in advanced economies. The higher divergence of business cycles is closely linked to the Chinese transformation. During the crisis, the Chinese fiscal stimulus prevented a decline in GDP growth not only in that country, but also in resource-rich economies. The Chinese shift to consumptiondriven growth led to a decline in commodity demand, and the environment became more challenging for many emerging markets. This view is supported by Bayesian VARs specified for the BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, and China) countries. The results reveal a strong impact of international variables on GDP growth. In contrast to the other countries, China plays a crucial role in determining global trade and oil prices. Hence, the change in the Chinese growth strategy puts additional reform pressure on countries with abundant natural resources.